The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in the freestyle events. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either of those two things happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Laticia-Leigh Transom. She has a personal best time of 25.99. The gap to eighth is 0.75 seconds or 2.8%. The gap to third is 1.37 seconds or 5.3%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s two fastest male 50 freestyle swimmers at the Games are Daniel Hunter and Samuel Perry. Daniel Hunter has a personal best time of 22.31. The gap to eighth is 0.20 seconds or 0.9%. The gap to third is 0.61 seconds or 2.7%. Conclusion – a good swim could earn a place in the final but a medal is unlikely. Samuel Perry has a personal best time of 22.47. The gap to eighth is 0.36 seconds or 1.60%. The gap to third is 0.77 seconds or 3.4%. Conclusion – In theory a final or a medal is unlikely. However Perry is coming off some top racing in the USA and could earn a final swim. For example his yards time, this week, at the NCAA Finals converts to 22.17, faster than the NZ record and only a few 100ths from a Commonwealth final.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Laticia-Leigh Transom. She has a personal best time of 55.84. The gap to eighth is 1.47 seconds or 2.6%. The gap to third is 3.47 seconds or 6.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s two fastest male 100 freestyle swimmers at the Games are Daniel Hunter and Samuel Perry. Daniel Hunter has a personal best time of 49.43. The gap to eighth is 0.30 seconds or 0.6%. The gap to third is 1.46 seconds or 3.0%. Conclusion – a good swim could earn a place in the final but a medal is unlikely. Samuel Perry has a personal best time of 49.48. The gap to eighth is 0.35 seconds or 0.70%. The gap to third is 1.51 seconds or 3.1%. Conclusion – Here again Perry is coming off some top racing in the USA. I expect Perry could very well earn a final swim. For example his yards time this week in an NCAA relay final converts to a very fast 48.20. A medal however is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Carina Doyle. She has a personal best time of 2:00.09. The gap to eighth is 2.28 seconds or 1.9%. The gap to third is 3.33 seconds or 2.8%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Matthew Stanley. He has a personal best time of 1:47.13. The gap to eighth is 0.04 seconds or 0.3%. The gap to third is 0.64 seconds or 0.6%. Conclusion – I understand there may be some debate about whether Stanley can swim this event. It is on the same day as the relay. If he does swim and has a good day he could make a final and possibly even medal.

New Zealand’s fastest female 400 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Georgia Marris. She has a personal best time of 4:15.52. The gap to eighth is 4.72 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 8.62 seconds or 3.4%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 400 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Matthew Stanley. He has a personal best time of 3:47.67. That time pre-dates the 18 months used in this post. If Stanley could repeat this old time he would place 7^th. The gap to third is 2.11 seconds or 0.90%. Conclusion – Stanley should make a final in this event. A medal however is unlikely.

No New Zealand swimmers will swim this event.

No New Zealand swimmers will swim this event.

Conclusion for freestyle events – The New Zealand swimmers most likely to make a final are Perry and Hunter in either or both the 50 and 100 freestyle and Stanley in the 200 and 400 freestyle. All three would need to swim very well to achieve that result. It is unlikely that any New Zealand swimmer will medal in a freestyle event. It is also most unlikely that any New Zealand female swimmer will make a freestyle final.

Prediction – Three finals, no medals.