Archive for March, 2018

Commonwealth Predictions Relays & Final Summary

Monday, March 26th, 2018

 This is the final post in the series predicting New Zealand’s results at the Commonwealth Games. This time we consider the possible results of the relay events. One would hope that New Zealand would do very well in these races. After-all Swimming New Zealand turned itself inside-out in order to add, effectively unqualified, relay swimmers into this team. I have long believed that the selection fiddle was simply to avoid the embarrassment of admitting to Sport New Zealand that only two swimmers qualified for the Commonwealth Games. Come hell or high water Swimming New Zealand needed to nominate a “normal” size of team. Only Swimming New Zealand could possibly believe that a dozen unqualified swimmers is a better option than a team of two swimmers performing well.

The post lists the top three relay countries in the Commonwealth for each event. There is then a prediction of the New Zealand result. The prediction is based on a second table shown for each relay. This table lists the best times of the four fastest NZ relay swimmers and deducts a 1.20 second relay change-over allowance to show a predicted time for the NZ team. This can be compared to the three best Commonwealth relay times.

At the conclusion of this post there is a table that summarises the predictions made in this Swimwatch series of posts.

So how does NZ compare?

400 Freestyle Relay Women
1 3:32.01 Australia
2 3:33.88 Canada
3 3:40.86 Great Britain

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First Second Third Fourth Less Relay Total Time
56.04 56.79 56.98 55.84 1.20 3:44.45

 

400 Freestyle Relay Men
1 3:12.45 Australia
2 3:14.88 Canada
3 3:17.41 South Africa

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First Second Third Fourth Less Relay Total Time
49.43 49.48 49.59 50.83 1.20 3:18.13

 

400 Medley Relay Women
1 3:54.29 Australia
2 3:54.86 Canada
3 3:59.51 Great Britain

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First Second Third Fourth Less Relay Total Time
1:00.82 1:10.44 58.51 55.84 1.20 4:04.41

 

400 Medley Relay Men
1 3:28.95 Great Britain
2 3:33.91 Australia
3 3:35.14 Canada

Prediction – New Zealand is unlikely to swim in this event. If they did swim the team would not make the final or medal.

First Second Third Fourth Less Relay Total Time
53.99 1:05.19 53.97 49.43 1.20 3:41.38

 

800 Freestyle Relay Women
1 7:48.51 Australia
2 7:51.47 Canada
3 8:00.93 Great Britain

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First Second Third Fourth Less Relay Total Time
2:00.09 2:00.60 2:01.56 2:02.45 1.20 8:03.45

 

800 Freestyle Relay Men
1 7:01.70 Great Britain
2 7:05.68 Australia
3 7:17.36 Canada

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First Second Third Fourth Less Relay Total Time
1:50.99 1:50.13 1:47.13 1:49.89 1.20 7:18.14

 

CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY OF NZ SWIMMERS’ PREDICTED PERFORMANCES

The table below summarises all the predictions made in the last four posts. What this is saying is that the 2018 New Zealand Commonwealth Games swim team will swim in fifteen finals and will win one silver medal (100 backstroke) and two bronze medals (50 butterfly and 200 backstroke). We will soon see the accuracy of that prediction.

Event Gold Silver Bronze Final
Freestyle Events 0 0 0 3
Backstroke Events 0 1 1 2
Breaststroke Events 0 0 0 0
Butterfly Events 0 0 1 5
Relay Events 0 0 0 5
       
All Events Total 0 1 2 15

If the prediction is accurate this result would be worse than the three previous Commonwealth Games. The table below shows the previous Games’ results and compares them with our Gold Coast predictions. Just when we thought Glasgow was bad, Swimming New Zealand may have found a way of sinking even further.

Gender Gold Silver Bronze Final Semi Heat Total
GC 2018 Prediction 0 1 2 15 na na na
Glasgow 2014 1 1 0 8 3 14 28
Delhi 2010 0 3 2 9 10 5 29
Melbourne 2006 1 1 4 na na na na

 

Commonwealth Games Swimming Predictions – Strokes Two

Monday, March 26th, 2018

 Two previous Swimwatch posts have discussed the possibility of New Zealand swimmers making a final or winning a medal in the Commonwealth Games’ freestyle, backstroke and breaststroke events. This post will look at the butterfly and medley races. The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in each of the butterfly and medley competitions. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

50 Butterfly Women
1 25.47 Campbell, Cate AUS
2 25.62 Oleksiak, Penny CAN
3 25.76 Barratt, Holly AUS
4 26.22 Smith, Rebecca CAN
5 26.29 Savard, Katerine CAN
6 26.35 Groves, Madeline AUS
7 26.45 Gasson, Helena NZL
8 26.53 Kelly, Rachael GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 26.45. This time ranks her seventh in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 0.69 seconds or 2.6%. Conclusion – Gasson should earn a swim in the final but a medal is unlikely.

50 Butterfly Men
1 22.75 Proud, Benjamin GBR
2 22.93 Schooling, Joseph SIN
3 23.52 Barrett, Adam GBR
4 23.64 Guy, James GBR
5 23.70 McCarthy, Brayden AUS
6 23.72 le Clos, Chad RSA
7 23.73 Carter, Dylan TRI
8 23.74 Jones, Cam AUS

New Zealand’s fastest male 50 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Daniel Hunter. He has a personal best time of 24.00. The gap to eighth is 0.26 seconds or 1.1%. The gap to third is 0.48 seconds or 2.0%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

100 Butterfly Women
1 23.74 Jones, Cam AUS
2 56.94 Oleksiak, Penny CAN
3 57.42 Throssell, Brianna AUS
4 57.85 Thomas, Alys GBR
5 57.96 Savard, Katerine CAN
6 58.22 Atkinson, Charlotte GBR
7 58.41 Kelly, Rachael GBR
8 58.45 Groves, Madeline AUS

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 58.51. The gap to eighth is 0.06 seconds or 0.1%. The gap to third is 1.09 seconds or 1.9%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

100 Butterfly Men
1 50.67 Guy, James GBR
2 50.78 Schooling, Joseph SIN
3 51.00 Irvine, Grant AUS
4 51.28 le Clos, Chad RSA
5 51.73 Morgan, David AUS
6 52.13 Barrett, Adam GBR
7 52.13 Quah, Zheng SIN
8 52.22 McCarthy, Brayden AUS

New Zealand’s fastest male 100 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Samuel Perry. I do not think he will swim the event. But if he does he has a personal best time of 53.97. The gap to eighth is 1.75 seconds or 3.2%. The gap to third is 2.97 seconds or 5.5%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

200 Butterfly Women
1 2:06.80 Taylor, Laura AUS
2 2:07.06 Atkinson, Charlotte GBR
3 2:07.37 McKeon, Emma AUS
4 2:07.54 Thomas, Alys GBR
5 2:07.74 Large, Emily GBR
6 2:07.90 Groves, Madeline AUS
7 2:09.64 MacInnes, Keanna GBR
8 2:09.79 Zavaros, Mabel CAN

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 2:09.84. The gap to eighth is 0.05 seconds or 0.1%. The gap to third is 2.47 seconds or 1.9%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

200 Butterfly Men
1 1:53.33 le Clos, Chad RSA
2 1:55.70 Morgan, David AUS
3 1:55.91 Guy, James GBR
4 1:56.05 Irvine, Grant AUS
5 1:56.45 Schooling, Joseph SIN
6 1:56.76 Quah, Zheng SIN
7 1:56.87 Darragh, Mack CAN
8 1:57.16 Peters, Jacob GBR

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 2:00.19. The gap to eighth is 3.03 seconds or 2.5%. The gap to third is 4.28 seconds or 3.6%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

200 Individual Medley Women
1 2:09.17 Pickrem, Sydney CAN
2 2:09.72 O’Connor, Siobhan-Marie GBR
3 2:10.97 Seltenreich-Hodgson, Erika CAN
4 2:11.16 Ruck, Taylor CAN
5 2:11.20 Miley, Hannah GBR
6 2:11.89 Seebohm, Emily AUS
7 2:12.05 Willmott, Aimee GBR
8 2:12.18 Ngawati, Kotuku AUS

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 medley swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 2:13.14. The gap to eighth is 0.96 seconds or 0.7%. The gap to third is 2.17 seconds or 1.6%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

200 Individual Medley Men
1 1:56.64 Litchfield, Max GBR
2 1:58.06 Lewis, Clyde AUS
3 1:58.39 Szaranek, Mark GBR
4 1:58.44 Scott, Duncan GBR
5 1:59.01 Larkin, Mitch AUS
6 1:59.24 Ashby, Bradlee NZL
7 2:00.40 To, Kenneth AUS
8 2:00.99 Baxter, Jarryd RSA

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 medley swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 1:59.24. The time ranks him sixth in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 0.85 seconds or 0.7%. Conclusion – Ashby should make this final. With a very good swim a bronze medal is an outside possibility. .

400 Individual Medley Women
1 4:32.88 Pickrem, Sydney CAN
2 4:34.12 Miley, Hannah GBR
3 4:36.48 Harvey, Mary-Sophie CAN
4 4:36.82 Willmott, Aimee GBR
5 4:37.25 Wood, Abbie GBR
6 4:38.97 Evans, Blair AUS
7 4:39.14 McKeown, Kaylee AUS
8 4:39.29 Darcel, Sarah CAN

New Zealand’s fastest female 400 medley swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 4:46.41. The gap to eighth is 7.12 seconds or 2.5%. The gap to third is 9.93 seconds or 3.5%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

400 Individual Medley Men
1 4:09.62 Litchfield, Max GBR
2 4:15.51 Szaranek, Mark GBR
3 4:15.68 Larkin, Mitch AUS
4 4:16.53 Sweeney, Ayrton RSA
5 4:17.40 Cote, Tristan CAN
6 4:18.60 Lewis, Clyde AUS
7 4:18.68 Ashby, Bradlee NZL
8 4:18.70 Litchfield, Joe GBR

New Zealand’s fastest male 400 medley swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 4:18.68. The time ranks him seventh in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 3.0 seconds or 1.1%. Conclusion – Ashby should make this final. A medal is unlikely.

Conclusions for butterfly and medley events – The New Zealand swimmers most likely to make finals are Helena Gasson and Bradlee Ashby. They should make finals in the women’s 50, 100 and 200 butterfly and the men’s 200 and 400 Medley. It is unlikely that any other New Zealand swimmer will make a final in either butterfly or medley events.

Prediction – Five finals. One bronze medal.

Commonwealth Games Swimming Predictions – Strokes

Sunday, March 25th, 2018

 The previous Swimwatch post discussed the possibility of New Zealand swimmers making a final or winning a medal in the Commonwealth Games’ freestyle events. This post will look at the backstroke and breaststroke events. The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in each of the stroke races. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either of those things happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

50 Backstroke Women
1 27.37 Seebohm, Emily AUS
2 27.49 Davies, Georgia GBR
3 27.51 Barratt, Holly AUS
4 27.64 Masse, Kylie CAN
5 27.80 Atherton, Minna AUS
6 27.93 Hannah, Jade CAN
7 28.11 Dawson, Kathleen GBR
8 28.18 Hope, Lucy GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 28.78. The gap to eighth is 0.60 seconds or 2.1%. The gap to third is 1.27 seconds or 4.4%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

50 Backstroke Men
1 24.90 Treffers, Ben AUS
2 24.97 Incerti, Zac AUS
3 25.08 Larkin, Mitch AUS
4 25.13 Acevedo, Javier CAN
5 25.19 Walker-Hebborn, Chris GBR
6 25.38 Quah, Zheng SIN
7 25.39 Pyle, Nicholas GBR
8 25.47 Zeng, Tim CAN

New Zealand’s fastest male 50 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Daniel Hunter. He has a personal best time of 25.87. The gap to eighth is 0.40 seconds or 1.6%. The gap to third is 0.79 seconds or 3.1%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

100 Backstroke Women
1 58.10 Masse, Kylie CAN
2 58.53 Seebohm, Emily AUS
3 59.13 Ruck, Taylor CAN
4 59.34 Davies, Georgia GBR
5 59.62 Hannah, Jade CAN
6 59.66 Barratt, Holly AUS
7 59.67 Atherton, Minna AUS
8 59.72 Simmonds, Elizabeth GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 1:00.82. The gap to eighth is 1.10 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 1.69 seconds or 2.9%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

100 Backstroke Men
1 53.11 Larkin, Mitch AUS
2 53.64 Acevedo, Javier CAN
3 53.76 Main, Corey NZL
4 53.95 Incerti, Zac AUS
5 54.03 Beaver, Josh AUS
6 54.20 Walker-Hebborn, Chris GBR
7 54.53 Mohammed, Xavier GBR
8 54.54 Reid, Christopher RSA

New Zealand’s fastest male 100 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Corey Main. HHHHhHe has a personal best time of 53.99. This time ranks him third in the Commonwealth. Main is a good competitor and has been well coached in Florida. I expect he will make the final in this event and will win a silver medal.

200 Backstroke Women
1 2:05.68 Seebohm, Emily AUS
2 2:05.97 Masse, Kylie CAN
3 2:06.36 Ruck, Taylor CAN
4 2:06.76 McKeown, Kaylee AUS
5 2:07.15 Caldwell, Hilary CAN
6 2:08.66 Baker, Hayley AUS
7 2:08.86 Simmonds, Elizabeth GBR
8 2:09.55 Rudin, Rosie GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 2:11.91. The gap to eighth is 2.36 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 5.55 seconds or 4.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

200 Backstroke Men
1 1:56.60 Larkin, Mitch AUS
2 1:56.95 Beaver, Josh AUS
3 1:57.67 Greenbank, Luke GBR
4 1:58.00 Main, Corey NZL
5 1:58.17 Binedell, Martin RSA
6 1:58.63 Hulme, Joseph GBR
7 1:58.90 Cartwright, Jack AUS
8 1:58.95 Reid, Christopher RSA

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Corey Main. HHHHhHe has a personal best time of 1:58.00. This time ranks him fourth in the Commonwealth. Main is a good competitor and has been well coached in Florida. I expect he will make the final in this event and will win a bronze medal.

50 Breaststroke Women
1 30.21 Clark, Imogen GBR
2 30.30 Vasey, Sarah GBR
3 30.49 Nicol, Rachel CAN
4 30.54 Atkinson, Alia JAM
5 30.59 Hansen, Jessica AUS
6 30.60 Pickett, Leiston AUS
7 30.91 Knelson, Faith CAN
8 31.00 Scott, Corrie GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 breaststroke swimmer at the Games is Bronagh Ryan. She has a personal best time of 32.32. The gap to eighth is 1.32 seconds or 4.1%. The gap to third is 1.83 seconds or 5.7%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

50 Breaststroke Men
1 25.95 Peaty, Adam GBR
2 26.54 van der Burgh, Cameron RSA
3 27.02 McKechnie, James AUS
4 27.29 Packard, Jake AUS
5 27.43 Benson, Craig GBR
6 27.68 Houlie, Michael RSA
7 27.69 Wilson, Matthew AUS
8 27.75 Murdoch, Ross GBR

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

100 Breaststroke Women
1 1:06.62 Smith, Kierra CAN
2 1:06.64 McKeown, Taylor AUS
3 1:06.78 Vasey, Sarah GBR
4 1:06.80 O’Connor, Siobhan-Marie GBR
5 1:07.02 Hansen, Jessica AUS
6 1:07.03 Nicol, Rachel CAN
7 1:07.22 Bohl, Georgia AUS
8 1:07.24 Ulyett, Jocelyn GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 breaststroke swimmer at the Games is Bronagh Ryan. She has a personal best time of 1:10.44. The gap to eighth is 3.20 seconds or 4.5%. The gap to third is 3.66 seconds or 5.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

100 Breaststroke Men
1 57.47 Peaty, Adam GBR
2 59.23 Murdoch, Ross GBR
3 59.57 Packard, Jake AUS
4 59.58 van der Burgh, Cameron RSA
5 59.61 Wilby, James GBR
6 59.89 Funk, Richard CAN
7 1:00.10 Wilson, Matthew AUS
8 1:00.25 Hunter, Liam AUS

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

200 Breaststroke Women
1 2:22.08 Ulyett, Jocelyn GBR
2 2:22.10 McKeown, Taylor AUS
3 2:22.23 Smith, Kierra CAN
4 2:22.96 Renshaw, Molly GBR
5 2:23.89 Tutton, Chloe GBR
6 2:24.41 Wallace, Tessa AUS
7 2:24.61 Schoenmaker, Tatjana RSA
8 2:25.31 McGregor, Ashley CAN

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

200 Breaststroke Men
1 2:07.72 Murdoch, Ross GBR
2 2:08.31 Wilson, Matthew AUS
3 2:09.25 Willis, Andrew GBR
4 2:09.42 Benson, Craig GBR
5 2:10.53 Stubblety-Cook, Zac AUS
6 2:10.57 Harley, George AUS
7 2:11.64 Sweeney, Ayrton RSA
8 2:12.26 Wall, Eli CAN

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

Conclusion for backstroke and breaststroke events – The New Zealand swimmer most likely to make a final is Corey Main. He should make the final of the 100 and 200 backstroke and could also medal in both events. It is unlikely that any other New Zealand swimmer will make a final in either backstroke or breaststroke.

Prediction – Two finals. One silver and one bronze medal.

Commonwealth Games Swimming Predictions – Freestyle

Saturday, March 24th, 2018

 The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in the freestyle events. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either of those two things happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

50 Freestyle Women
1 23.79 Campbell, Cate AUS
2 24.22 Campbell, Bronte AUS
3 24.62 Jack, Shayna AUS
4 24.64 Toro, Michelle CAN
5 24.67 Mainville, Sandrine CAN
6 25.03 Ruck, Taylor CAN
7 25.07 Hopkin, Anna GBR
8 25.24 Rayner, Freya GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Laticia-Leigh Transom. She has a personal best time of 25.99. The gap to eighth is 0.75 seconds or 2.8%. The gap to third is 1.37 seconds or 5.3%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

50 Freestyle Men
1 21.32 Proud, Benjamin GBR
2 21.55 McEvoy, Cameron AUS
3 21.70 Tandy, Brad RSA
4 21.91 Roberts, James AUS
5 21.98 Magnussen, James AUS
6 22.03 Cumberlidge, David GBR
7 22.10 Fannon, Thomas GBR
8 22.11 Kisil, Yuri CAN

New Zealand’s two fastest male 50 freestyle swimmers at the Games are Daniel Hunter and Samuel Perry. Daniel Hunter has a personal best time of 22.31. The gap to eighth is 0.20 seconds or 0.9%. The gap to third is 0.61 seconds or 2.7%. Conclusion – a good swim could earn a place in the final but a medal is unlikely. Samuel Perry has a personal best time of 22.47. The gap to eighth is 0.36 seconds or 1.60%. The gap to third is 0.77 seconds or 3.4%. Conclusion – In theory a final or a medal is unlikely. However Perry is coming off some top racing in the USA and could earn a final swim. For example his yards time, this week, at the NCAA Finals converts to 22.17, faster than the NZ record and only a few 100ths from a Commonwealth final.

100 Freestyle Women
1 52.37 Campbell, Cate AUS
2 52.85 Campbell, Bronte AUS
3 52.94 Oleksiak, Penny CAN
4 52.96 Ruck, Taylor CAN
5 53.12 McKeon, Emma AUS
6 53.77 Mainville, Sandrine CAN
7 53.88 Anderson, Freya GBR
8 54.37 O’Connor, Siobhan-Marie GBR

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Laticia-Leigh Transom. She has a personal best time of 55.84. The gap to eighth is 1.47 seconds or 2.6%. The gap to third is 3.47 seconds or 6.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

100 Freestyle Men
1 47.90 Scott, Duncan GBR
2 47.91 McEvoy, Cameron AUS
3 47.97 Cartwright, Jack AUS
4 48.16 Chalmers, Kyle AUS
5 48.38 le Clos, Chad RSA
6 48.50 Kisil, Yuri CAN
7 49.09 Waddell, Zane RSA
8 49.13 Thormeyer, Markus CAN

New Zealand’s two fastest male 100 freestyle swimmers at the Games are Daniel Hunter and Samuel Perry. Daniel Hunter has a personal best time of 49.43. The gap to eighth is 0.30 seconds or 0.6%. The gap to third is 1.46 seconds or 3.0%. Conclusion – a good swim could earn a place in the final but a medal is unlikely. Samuel Perry has a personal best time of 49.48. The gap to eighth is 0.35 seconds or 0.70%. The gap to third is 1.51 seconds or 3.1%. Conclusion – Here again Perry is coming off some top racing in the USA. I expect Perry could very well earn a final swim. For example his yards time this week in an NCAA relay final converts to a very fast 48.20. A medal however is unlikely.

200 Freestyle Women
1 1:54.99 McKeon, Emma AUS
2 1:55.76 Titmus, Ariarne AUS
3 1:56.76 Faulkner, Eleanor GBR
4 1:56.85 Ruck, Taylor CAN
5 1:57.13 Savard, Katerine CAN
6 1:57.33 Wilson, Madison AUS
7 1:57.79 Oleksiak, Penny CAN
8 1:57.81 Harvey, Mary-Sophie CAN

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Carina Doyle. She has a personal best time of 2:00.09. The gap to eighth is 2.28 seconds or 1.9%. The gap to third is 3.33 seconds or 2.8%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

200 Freestyle Men
1 1:45.16 Scott, Duncan GBR
2 1:45.18 Guy, James GBR
3 1:46.49 Chalmers, Kyle AUS
4 1:46.72 Graham, Alexander AUS
5 1:46.78 Milne, Stephen GBR
6 1:46.79 Lewis, Clyde AUS
7 1:46.84 le Clos, Chad RSA
8 1:47.09 Brown, Myles RSA

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Matthew Stanley. He has a personal best time of 1:47.13. The gap to eighth is 0.04 seconds or 0.3%. The gap to third is 0.64 seconds or 0.6%. Conclusion – I understand there may be some debate about whether Stanley can swim this event. It is on the same day as the relay. If he does swim and has a good day he could make a final and possibly even medal.

400 Freestyle Women
1 4:02.36 Titmus, Ariarne AUS
2 4:06.37 Hibbott, Holly GBR
3 4:06.90 Faulkner, Eleanor GBR
4 4:07.24 Carlin, Jazmin GBR
5 4:07.73 Ashwood, Jessica AUS
6 4:08.07 Melverton, Kiah AUS
7 4:09.69 Harvey, Mary-Sophie CAN
8 4:10.80 Goss, Kennedy CAN

New Zealand’s fastest female 400 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Georgia Marris. She has a personal best time of 4:15.52. The gap to eighth is 4.72 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 8.62 seconds or 3.4%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

400 Freestyle Men
1 3:43.85 Horton, Mack AUS
2 3:44.74 Guy, James GBR
3 3:45.56 McKeon, David AUS
4 3:45.80 McLoughlin, Jack AUS
5 3:46.16 Milne, Stephen GBR
6 3:46.20 Litchfield, Max GBR
7 3:48.82 Bagshaw, Jeremy CAN
8 3:49.55 Meyer, Matthew RSA

New Zealand’s fastest male 400 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Matthew Stanley. He has a personal best time of 3:47.67. That time pre-dates the 18 months used in this post. If Stanley could repeat this old time he would place 7th. The gap to third is 2.11 seconds or 0.90%. Conclusion – Stanley should make a final in this event. A medal however is unlikely.

800 Freestyle Women
1 8:20.08 Titmus, Ariarne AUS
2 8:25.61 Ashwood, Jessica AUS
3 8:30.56 Carlin, Jazmin GBR
4 8:30.66 Hibbott, Holly GBR
5 8:31.18 Evans, Joanna BAH
6 8:31.68 Padington, Mackenzie CAN
7 8:31.68 Padington, Mackenzie CAN
8 8:32.84 Hattersley, Camilla GBR

No New Zealand swimmers will swim this event.

1500 Freestyle Men
1 14:47.70 Horton, Mack AUS
2 14:51.48 Jervis, Daniel GBR
3 14:54.95 McLoughlin, Jack AUS
4 15:02.12 Derbyshire, Tom GBR
5 15:06.51 Lelliott, Jay GBR
6 15:08.35 Hedlin, Eric CAN
7 15:11.22 Szurdoki, Brent RSA
8 15:13.05 Parrish, Joshua AUS

No New Zealand swimmers will swim this event.

Conclusion for freestyle events – The New Zealand swimmers most likely to make a final are Perry and Hunter in either or both the 50 and 100 freestyle and Stanley in the 200 and 400 freestyle. All three would need to swim very well to achieve that result. It is unlikely that any New Zealand swimmer will medal in a freestyle event. It is also most unlikely that any New Zealand female swimmer will make a freestyle final.

Prediction – Three finals, no medals.

Janet Evans Should Be The Boss

Thursday, March 22nd, 2018

Here on Swimwatch we seldom discuss international swimming politics. There are two good reasons for this. First, I don’t know much about the subject. And second, there is more than enough in New Zealand to keep Swimwatch occupied. However there was a headline on SwimVortex today that did attract my interest. This is what it said:

Janet Evans ‘in race’ for FINA top table; may lead to 1st woman president, in Ledecky era

It seems that Janet Evans is preparing to put her name forward to be the United States’ representative on the ruling FINA Bureau. That is great news for several reasons.

First Janet is a woman. That might sound strange but FINA is in serious need of some gender balance. The central FINA Bureau currently has thirty-five men and three women. Only in this most recent Olympic cycle has FINA appointed more than one woman. The ten Honorary members and the seven executive members are all male. Over all the organisation’s committees there are 179 men and 48 women. In a sport where more than 50% of the participants are women it is a travesty that 79% of the governing positions should be held by men.

New Zealand hasn’t helped. The most recent list I can find is in the 2016/17 Annual Report. This tells me that four New Zealand appointments (Gerrard, Clarke, West and Eagles) are male and one (Huckins) is female. New Zealand needs to set a better example than that. And so simply because of her gender I am favourably disposed to the appointment of Janet Evans.

Second, she really knows the sport of swimming. What Katie Ledecky is today Janet Evans was in the 1980s. Just consider this record; four Olympic Gold Medals and one Silver, five World Championship Gold Medals, one Silver and one Bronze and World Records over 400, 800 and 1500 meters. Her 800 meter world record of 8:16.22 stood unbroken for nineteen years from 1989 to 2008. For five years from 1985 to 1990 Evans was undefeated over 400, 800 and 1500 meters. The FINA Bureau could do with some real swimming knowledge at its top table. Perhaps she would temper FINA’s current rush to reward murderous dictators like the Russian President.

Third, she is young. She is 46 years old. The guy she is seeking to replace, Dale Neuburger, is pretty typical of FINA Bureau members. He has been FINA Vice President since 2000. It is time for him to move aside. The movement in swimming towards a more professional sport and overdue gender issues is work for a younger mind. Janet Evans seems well placed to address those problems, or as Craig Lord put it, she stands head and shoulders above the likely male candidates whose names are doing the rounds of pool talk.”

Fourth, she is strong enough to effect change. One of the three women on the current FINA Bureau is the South African breaststroke Olympic Champion, Penny Heyns. Recent indecision by the Bureau on the Safe Sport issue suggests that Penny Heyns and the others are in serious need of help. The “athlete first” concept still has a long way to go in the sport of swimming. And that’s just as true in New Zealand as it is in Switzerland.

And fifth, I have some knowledge of one of the coaches who guided Janet Evans’ career. Through most of her swimming she was coached by Bud McAllister. I have had no personal contact with him. But I do know Mark Schubert who also assisted Janet Evans and also was coach of her young and talented daughter. I have coached four swimmers who have also swum with Mark Schubert. I have tremendous respect for the man. He is tough, uncompromising, knowledgeable and honest. The fact that Janet Evans survived and thrived with Mark Schubert is all the recommendation I need. No one with character defects last with Mark Schubert. Anyone who wants to know whether Janet Evans has what it takes to represent the sport can rest easy. Of course she has – she survived Schubert.

So that’s the five personal reasons that the selection of Janet Evans would be a good move. But there is more than that. A senior source close to the USA Swimming leadership told SwimVortex;

“Because this person represents the strongest and most influential swimming nation on earth: arguably, USA Swimming is the only federation that could impose changes on FINA. That’s a matter of choice – and the world is waiting and watching for true leadership. FINA cannot possibly afford to have non-cooperation with the USA as the strongest team in its sales package to television and related media.”

SwimVortex then checked on the qualities that the USA representative should possess. Here is the list;

·         Free of conflicting interests from their gainful employment.

·         Financially secure enough to resist the FINA system (of grace and favour gravy train lifestyles)

·         Corruption free, “both perceptually and in reality”.

·         Intent on change and intent not to get sucked into the ”go along to get along” malaise and assimilation at the heart of FINA culture

·         Knowledgeable about international sport politics.

·         Supported by their employee for travel, time away from work because the position is ‘voluntary’;

·         Widely known and respected within the sport and by the media, globally.

·         Willing to press for an ‘athlete first’ culture

·         Willing to move FINA into this century by placing financial priority on the athlete not the administration (the annual budget for which is often greater than the total amount of prize money spent on athletes)

·         Willing to shift FINA into a role of cooperation with its major stakeholders, athletes at the helm and coaches, too

 

Janet Evens has meets most of those requirements. We can only hope she makes her way through the American political minefield and ends up sitting at FINA’s top table.

It is off the subject, but swimming in New Zealand could do worse than examine the list of requirements for the American job and apply the same criteria to those who wish to represent New Zealand in the sport’s highest court.