I imagine there are some who believe I have already written too much about the horrors of the Francis’ high performance plan. “Give it a rest,” I hear them say, “Gary’s a nice guy. He’s trying his best.” But the chances of me leaving this alone are nil. There is too much at stake. In this post I want to address why Swimming New Zealand (SNZ) cannot be allowed to wander off on their elitist path. Let’s discuss why it is important for you to attend their future meetings.

Let’s look at how the pathetic response of the Wellington meeting sabotaged the careers of every swimmer in the district. The audience at that meeting did not have the best interest of the region’s swimmers at heart. Or if they did, they had a strange way of showing it. Let’s also consider whether Dave Crampton’s rush to curry favour with Steve Johns after the meeting had the best interests of swimming at heart. Or were the audience and Crampton, in particular, going through the same servile genuflexion that has allowed SNZ to rule unchecked for a decade. Let’s consider how future meetings can be made more relevant and more important to swimming.

Eight years ago, on Sunday, September 26^th 2010, I wrote the following Swimwatch post.

What this said, eight years ago, was that the policy of a central training centre would not work. Eight years ago SNZ were told. Eight years ago SNZ did not listen. Eight years ago parents at meetings were as accepting as the Wellington audience. Eight years ago sycophants like Crampton rushed to pay homage. And for eight years two generations of New Zealand’s best swimmers failed to fulfil their potential – New Zealand swimming’s lost generations.

And now Gary Francis is proposing that we repeat the disaster. Because it is a repetition. Oh, they are calling it “new” and “refreshed” and a “move away from a centralized to a targeted program”, but it is not. It is a Francis and Johns’ con. If you believe this is new I have a London bridge I’d like you to buy.

Their centralised program was targeted. That’s the same. Their central national training centre is staying. That’s the same. With the exception of the forced transportation to Auckland and times invented by a mate of Francis rather than FINA nothing has changed. And when nothing changes there is no reason to believe the results will be any different.

What that means is accepting the Francis’ plan will mean continuing the decline that has characterised the sport in the past eight years. The table below shows the decline in key performance factors between 2011 and 2017. The second table then predicts what the sport will look like after eight years of the Francis plan.

And after eight years.

So what does all this mean for the sport? Here are the key outcomes likely to arise from eight years of Francis’ plan rule.

1. Membership numbers will decline by a further 11% to 5000. Young people these days simply will not accept the elitist, exclusion it involves. They will go to activities that offer a more democratic chance to shine. Steve Johns and Gary Francis complain about the advantages of new sports. But with decisions like these they are the architects of their own demise. They are the ones keeping the sport “traditional”.
2. International Olympic results will remain at zero. There is nothing in the Francis plan that offers a path out of the wilderness. The world of swimming is changing at a hundred miles an hour and this lot simply do not have what it takes to keep up.
3. Government funding will further decline to $600,000. Peter Miskimmin does not take to failure well. He has a long history of punishing sports that fail to perform. Swimming can expect the failure of the Francis’ plan to get a rough reception in Wellington.
4. But the biggest change for you and me is that Cotterill, Johns and Francis are going to be forced into a massive increase in the income generated by members – they call it user pays. Membership fees, meet entry fees and international team fees can be expected to double in this period. SNZ staff members are not going to reduce their bloated lifestyles. With the collapse of government funding and falling membership they will have no option but to charge you and me more for everything – so that’s what they will do. The table below shows what I expect Francis and Johns will need to charge members by the year 2025 to preserve the organisation’s income.

Swimwatch is on its knees begging. Eight years ago we predicted the current perilous state. In another eight years of this Francis’ nonsense we will be in an even worse position. For the sake of swimmers needing your help, please, please, please don’t let it happen.