So Did Swimming NZ Make Progress?

The day before the New Zealand Short Course National Championships began Swimwatch published a post comparing the best entry times with the current world records. The comparison showed that on average the fastest swimmers entered in the Championships were 7.2% slower than the world record times. Men were 7.4% slower and women 7.0% slower.

The post discussed the length of time it would take for New Zealand swimmers to bridge the 7.2% gap. Assuming New Zealand swimmers improved at twice the rate that the world records improved it would take five years for New Zealand to have a world class program.

It is a huge ask. It requires action to begin straight away and to continue at a high level for a long time. Every opportunity to close the gap between New Zealand’s best and the world’s best swimmers needs to be taken. Without immediate attention New Zealand swimming will never catch up.   

Well the first opportunity to improve has come and gone. The National Championships were held last week. Did New Zealand swimming make progress? To check this out I have reprinted the table that compares the National entry times with the current world records. But on this occasion I have added the winning times swum at the National Championships. Based on entry times New Zealand swimmers were on average 7.2% slower than the world record. After the Nationals are we closer to our goal? Did we make progress? Or are we further away?

The data tells the following story.

  1. Far from closing in on the world’s best times New Zealand swimmers have gone backwards. We were an average of 7.2% behind. At the National Championships this got worse. New Zealand champions are now 7.5% behind. Women at the Auckland meet were 7.8% behind. Men were 7.1% behind.
  2. The drop from 7.2% behind to 7.5% behind might not sound all that severe. But when the gap is as big as 7% any lost opportunity to close the gap is very serious. Prior to the Championships, in an average 100m race, the best New Zealand swimmer was finishing about 6 meters behind the world’s best swimmers. This has increased. New Zealand’s best swimmer is now a further half meter behind.
  3. On a positive note Bradley Ashby has brought New Zealand swimming closer to world class in the medley and backstroke events. His 200m medley is now 4.9% (or about 10 metres) behind the world’s best.
  4. The problem for Ashby is that an improvement of 0.7% is not enough. At that annual rate world class times are about eight years away. Ashby probably won’t be swimming in eight years. Progress of more than 1.5%, or more than twice Ashby’s current improvement, is required for a swimmer wanting to be competitive in Tokyo in three years. And Ashby’s problem, is New Zealand’s problem. Swimmers are improving but not at a fast enough rate. In this meet only the men’s 50, 100 and 200 backstroke, and the 100 IM (not an Olympic event) improved by more than 1.5%. No women’s event came close to that level of improvement. To do well in Tokyo New Zealand swimmers are going to have to do better; a lot better.      

The Swimming New Zealand PR machine goes into overdrive to hide the facts. Sophie Pascoe’s swims are all over the organization’s website and trumpeted in the general media. Her swims have every right to be given maximum praise. She is, without qualification, an astounding athlete. But what is not right is to use her swims to hide a deep malaise in the main stream sport. For too long Swimming New Zealand used Lauren Boyle the same way; to deflect attention away from the sport’s serious problems.

One report begins with this paraphrased sentence, “Two world records highlighted the first day of the New Zealand Short Course championships in Auckland.” The report goes on to explain that the records were set by para swimmer, Sophie Pascoe. However the first sentence is a clear attempt to portray the meet as a hot-bed of world class swimming. And that is not true. It is fake news that does the sport no favors because it papers over fissures that need to be exposed and repaired.

At the National Short Course Championships swimming in New Zealand got worse. A major step towards addressing the problem is to acknowledge that a problem exists. But from this Swimming New Zealand Board I’m picking that might be too much to ask.       

Men

Event World Time NZ Time % Behind Nat Time % Behind
50 m freestyle 20.26 21.52 5.9 22.16 8.6
100 m freestyle 44.94 47.30 5.0 48.84 8.0
200 m freestyle 1:39.37 1:45.70 6.0 1:47.35 7.4
400 m freestyle 3:32.25 3:47.35 6.6 3:46.11 6.1
1500 m freestyle 14:08.06 14:47.85 4.5 14:50.61 4.8
50 m backstroke 22.22 24.94 10.9 24.29 8.5
100 m backstroke 48.92 53.57 8.7 52.39 6.6
200 m backstroke 1:45.63 1:56.57 9.4 1:54.58 7.8
50 m breaststroke 25.25 27.82 9.2 27.34 7.7
100 m breaststroke 55.61 1:00.76 8.5 59.95 7.2
200 m breaststroke 2:00.44 2:10.07 7.4 2:09.46 7.0
50 m butterfly 21.80 23.38 6.8 24.15 9.7
100 m butterfly 48.08 52.68 8.7 52.32 8.1
200 m butterfly 1:48.56 1:56.46 6.8 1:55.65 6.1
100 m IM 50.30 54.92 8.4 53.85 6.6
200 m IM 1:49.63 1:56.14 5.6 1:55.30 4.9
400 m IM 3:55.50 4:11.88 6.5 4:10.12 5.9
Average Gap 7.4 7.1

Women

Event World Time NZ Time % Behind Nat Time % Behind
50 m freestyle 22.93 25.21 9.0 24.95 8.1
100 m freestyle 50.58 54.19 6.7 54.96 8.0
200 m freestyle 1:50.43 1:57.58 6.1 1:58.31 6.7
400 m freestyle 3:54.52 4:07.80 5.4 4:08.98 5.8
800 m freestyle 7:59.34 8:28.27 5.7 8:38.20 7.5
50 m backstroke 25.67 27.75 7.5 27.71 7.4
100 m backstroke 55.03 59.51 7.5 59.66 7.8
200 m backstroke 1:59.23 2:09.40 7.9 2:09.62 8.0
50 m breaststroke 28.64 31.32 8.6 31.28 8.4
100 m breaststroke 1:02.36 1:07.79 8.0 1:07.35 7.4
200 m breaststroke 2:14.57 2:28.11 9.1 2:25.82 7.7
50 m butterfly 24.38 25.75 5.3 27.07 9.9
100 m butterfly 54.61 57.11 4.4 58.86 7.2
200 m butterfly 1:59.61 2:07.04 5.9 2:10.49 8.3
100 m IM 56.51 1:00.61 6.8 1:00.45 6.5
200 m IM 2:01.86 2:09.74 6.1 2:11.55 7.4
400 m IM 4:18.94 4:46.41 9.6 4:48.92 10.4
Average Gap 7.0 7.8

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